PENGARUH CURAH HUJAN TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT DI ACEH SINGKIL

Abstract

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) is a strategic plantation crop whose productivity is affected by climatic dynamics, particularly rainfall. This study analyzes the relationship between rainfall and fresh fruit bunch (FFB) productivity in Aceh Singkil using secondary data from 2020-2024. A quantitative descriptive method was applied using Pearson correlation and simple linear regression. The results show average rainfall of 3,691.60 mm/year and average production of 104,942.60 data units. The Pearson correlation is moderately negative (r = -0.383), but statistically insignificant (p = 0.524). The regression model is Y = 157,567.442 - 14.255X with R2 = 0.147 and Adjusted R2 = -0.137. These findings indicate that annual rainfall alone is not sufficient to explain FFB production variation. Critically, rainfall above the common agronomic range may reduce productivity indirectly through waterlogging, nutrient leaching, harvest disruption, and lower fertilization efficiency. The small sample size and the absence of rainy days, monthly distribution, palm age, fertilization, and harvested area imply that the results should be interpreted as preliminary indications rather than causal evidence.